I've just posted the following on the Mathematician's forum:
"Having looked at the race I find myself in agreement with the Post's Diomed that Buachaill Dona has a good chance tomorrow. The following seem to me the positives:
1) BC has proven he can win a race of above tomorrow's value;
2) he goes well on the track - one win and one very close 2nd from two runs there;
3) he is well drawn - Peter May's figures suggest that the lowest stalls have an advantage and BC goes from stall 4;
4) he has had a run this season, over 6f when he is probably best over 5f, a tactic trainers quite often use when getting a 5f horse ready to win, and he ran very well. He was beaten by 2.5l but was between 4-9lb wrong on handicap terms with the three in front;
5) he has dropped down to a mark off which he has won. BD's last handicap win was at Newcastle on 27/06/08, off 98. That resulted in a rise to 103, and he only got down to that mark again at the beginning of this season, after several runs in non handicaps and ten in handicaps.
Tomorrow's is by some way the least valuable handicap BD has contested since his win on 27/06/08, which have been (in decending order of class as judged by win prize money expressed in £100s):
623 (02/08/08), beaten 6.1l off 103
623 (01/08/09), beaten 7.5l off 101
500 (22/01/09), beaten 8.0l off 102
500 (19/02/09), beaten 4.5l off 100
467 (13/09/08), beaten 19.8l off 103
467 (12/09/09), beaten 5.8l off 102
259 (18/08/09), beaten 9.7l off 102
249 (30/05/09), beaten 8.0 off 102
172 (08/08/09), beaten 1.5l off 101
125 (26/06/09), beaten 0.3l off 100
--------------------------------------------
187 (27/06/08), won by 1l off 98
100 (26/04/10)
It thus looks to me as though BD isn't up to winning more valuable class 2 handicaps (class 250 and upwards) off marks of 100 or more, but less valuable ones (100-250) look feasible off marks below 100."
Buachaill Dona, like Smokey Oakey and Fathom Five, is within the top four of the ability rating ranking for his race and has won at or above the class of tomorrow's race.
Given the Post forecast of 7/2, I was surprised to find BD on offer on Betfair at 5.9 when I checked earlier this evening, and have had a bet. Given the positives, and what I see as largely unimpressive opposition, if BD was trained by a more "readable" trainer I'd be happy to leave the bet. But I find Dandy Nicholls all but unreadable as regards his placings and although BD is very plausible for the race tomorrow there may well be a different target in view. So I will be laying my bet off for, hopefully, an arb.
ps at 8.30am
The 5.9 I took last night was reduced to 5.53 due to the withdrawal of Rasaman and the bet layed off this morning at 4.8. What now amounts to a bet to my stake at 0.73 makes no one's fortune, but there is a chance of a worthwhile profit and no possibility of a loss if today BD is running in preparation for a later race.
