The doubts about Prime Defender's status which precluded a bet on him seem to have been justified, and neither of the other two probables - Baldemar or Fantasy Explorer - made any kind of show, as expected from the analysis of their careers. Judging by his price, most were surprised by Secret Asset, but as noted before the race his career thus far has been relatively brief so (as would also have been the case with Swiss Franc) not an absolute shock.
But the more important issue for me was what to make of Ceremonial Jade's performance,which was a clear downturn from Saturday's.
It is of course possible that CJ is going out of form: this was his sixth race within three months and maybe he needs a rest. But when brought out to challenge he made up some ground - not of course nearly as much as Flipando. Was it a question of the challenge being left too late, or that when asked the question he simply couldn't respond adequately? My inclination is to keep him on the watch list and see where he is placed next - and maybe now 7f will prove to be his best trip.
Two decent races at Lingfield tomorrow.
In the 2.10 I have Seek The Fair Land as the class/form horse and with a decent profile for a class dropper, except in relation to the ability rankings. Close but not close enough for a serious bet. The favourite in the Post forecast, Ocean Legend, has good consistent form this year but at around class 26. Prior to that he showed very little at around class 47, so he strikes me as a false forecast favourite for tomorrow's class 78. Sadly he is currently trading at much above the Post's forecast price on Betfair, otherwise I would have layed him tonight and traded out tomorrow.
The 2.45 looks very tricky. I make King Olav the class/form horse but like Seek The Fair Land he is well down the ability ranking and his profile is less impressive. The unexposed Cashpoint (a discretionary consistent horse from outside the first six of the Post's forecast) and Tinaar are the other probables with form, but impossible properly to appraise. Several other impossible properly to appraise horses in the field, so a no go race for me.
At best, therefore, some scope for trading in the 2.15 as regards Seek the Fair Land and Ocean Legend.
Update at 2.07
I've been able to trade STFL both win and place, but the movements of OL have defeated me and I've not been able to trade him at all.
