Posted on the Mathematician's forum earlier today:
"The two basic methods I use have a very high strike rate but throw up very few bets, so I continue to explore whether the principles behind them are capable of finding additional worthwhile bets albeit at a lower strike rate. I've discussed five of these here since the start of the Flat turf season: three profitable ones (Smokey Oakey, Fathom Five and Buachaill) and two losers (Bogside Theatre and Som Tala). Today in the Victoria Cup I've had a small EW bet on the sixth in this series.
On the main method I follow Advanced doesn't feature, the three probables being Mabait, Prime Exhibit and Castles In The Air. But although these are all relatively lightly raced horses open to improvement, and maybe enough improvement to win today's race (and I've covered my Advance stake by a small bet on Mabait in case he is as good as he seemed on his last run), none has yet put in the Form Book a performance that proves it has the ability to win a race of today's class.
Coming at the race from the perspective that has thrown up Smokey Oakey, etc, Advanced seems to me to be of interest. Whether one measures class by value of race or average OR of runner, Advanced has won won two better races than today's, the more recent over course and distance last September. And he seems to be at his best over 6f or 7f on good/soft or firmer, so has suitable conditions today, and quite possibly a favourable draw.
Leaving aside his relatively unsuccessful forays into non handicaps, and handicaps over other than 6 or 7f or on softer than good/soft, I have nine comparable handicap runs in my database, and today's is middling in class by both value of race (sixth most valuable out of what will be ten races) and average OR (seventh highest AOR).
Taking value first, in the four races Advanced has contested of lower class by value, today's being a £53,000 race, he has won one and been 2-4 in the other three. He has won two of the five higher value races but been out of the frame in the other three.
Taking average OR of runner, today's race (assuming all 29 go) is a class 94.7. Advanced has run in five handicaps from 90.6 to 98.4, winning two and being placed three times. He has also won a 100.4, and his runs without being placed have been:
04/08/07, £62,300, AOR 101.6
20/06/09, £62,300, AOR 99.4
19/09/09, £93,500, AOR 100.7
--------------------------------------
08/05/10, £53,000, AOR 94.7
So of the nine relevant handicaps since August 2007, the only three he has not won or been placed in have all been of higher class (by both measures) than today's. In the four of lower class, by one or both measures, he has always either won or been placed, and he has won two which were better than today's race on both measures.
One cannot be confident of anything in a 29 runner race over a course which may from time to time have a distinct track bias either to very high or very low drawn horses, and where over a third of the field have run 16 times or less and, like Mabait and others, are open to improvement. Nevertheless at 30.0 and above on Betfair, and 7.00 and above for the place, Advanced strikes me as plausible for a modest EW bet."
The "two methods" I refer to in the first sentence are the basic one, illustrated several times already on this blog and which found the Sizing Europe/Captain Cee Bee bet, and the "2yos to follow as 3yos" method which I've been referring to more recently and which of course threw up the two winners earlier this week.
