Two of my 2009 2yos to follow as 3yos run in the 4,35, Youm Jamil who was discussed in relation to a race on Saturday from which he was withdrawn, and Pekan Three having his second 3yo run (and I missed his first, when he came 3rd).
For essentially the reason given on Saturday, I don't see YJ as betting material today, as he is rising in class.
Pekan Three qualified by virtue of his sole 2yo run where he returned a "Hussey" SF of 88 in a class 58 over 8f at Newmarket. His recent run at Windsor when dropped in class was encouraging but insufficient to make him betting material now raised quite a way in class.
So neither will be backed today.
Below is a post I made on the Mathematician forum yesterday relating to the Chester Cup:
"Increasingly with these valuable handicaps I'm of the view that trying to find a feasible runner where one can hypothesise the trainer's intentions is the most productive route, and on the work I've done on the Cup so far the horse that is interesting me most is Mick Channon's Som Tala.
At first sight, not an attractive proposition, as Som Tala has had only one win in umpteen runs since September 2006, and he has run three times in the Chester Cup with just one placing to his credit. Nevertheless, there are reasons for thinking he is not without a chance.
First, his Chester Cup career:
2007 (as a 4yo): 5th, beaten 6l, off 85.
2008 (as a 5yo): 2nd, beaten 0.5l, off 89.
2009 (as a 6yo): 10th, beaten 6l, off 94.
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2010 (now a 7yo): running off 87.
Assuming the horse has not begun to deteriorate with age, he thus has a 7lb easier task in relative weight terms than in 2009 when beaten 6l and a 2lb easier task than in 2008 when beaten 0.5l. These figures alone make him in my view feasible.
Second, tomorrow's run in Som Tala's career context:
I have the details of 16 turf handicap runs including and since the 2007 Chester Cup in my database. The evidence seems clear that this rather one paced horse needs at least 16f (14 of the 16 handicaps).
Also, ST seems an early season horse. In seven 16f and above turf handicaps in May and June, ST has only once been worst than 5th (his 10th in the 2009 Chester Cup). In seven 16f and above turf handicaps from July onwards he has only once finished in the first five, and that in by far the lowest class race of the 14 turf handicaps of 16F or more he has contested.
Finally, the record suggests he can win off up to 92 in one of these top class handicaps, but probably not off higher.
If one combines the above, ST's record in early season top handicaps of 16f or more when running off 92 or less is really rather good:
09/05/07 (Chester Cup), 5th, beaten 6l, off 85, carrying 8.04
07/05/08 (Chester Cup), 2nd, beaten 0.5l, off 89, carrying 8.12
27/06/09 (Northumberland Plate), won, off 92, carrying 8.08
and tomorrow he runs off 87, carrying 8.03.
Can we deduce that the trainer is trying to win tomorrow rather than positioning the horse for a later win? Not conclusively, and one could not rule out a tilt at the Northumberland Plate next month. But tomorrow's distance seems more suitable and I suspect that his win in last year's Plate was a bit fortunate - the soft going helping his cause.
Finally, conditions tomorrow. The distance is, I think, his preferred, and he clearly acts on the course. Good going would be fine, though if it rains and gets softer, so much the better. The draw is always of interest at Chester, but the stats. I have from Peter May's utility suggest that there is not too much in it over the Cup distance, but to the extent that there is an advantage, it is to have a low draw. ST is drawn 2.
In sum, what we have here is a horse probably with conditions ideal to his cause (though slightly less so if the track firms up), but rather one paced. His profile suggests he is feasible as the winner, but could get run out of it by a horse with a bit of a finish. Not one to put the bank on, but I think a decent EW shot to modest stakes."
