Three of my 2009 2yos to follow as 3yos have their second or third runs of the year over the weekend.
Lunar Victory runs in the class 52 10f 1.25 Newbury tomorrow. On his yearly debut he went off the 11/8 favourite in a class 52 and ran very well until weakening a furlong out and finishing a well beaten 8th. Tomorrow's race is over the same trip, albeit on an easier course, and I expect Lunar Victory to go much closer. But he certainly didn't do enough last time out to be backed tomorrow.
Green Moon runs in the 2.30 Newbury tomorrow, a class 218 3yo only handicap. On his yearly debut he easily won a class 26 maiden over 10f at Leicester so this represents a huge rise in class. There are several other runners with better form to date - for example the Stoute trained Verdant and the Mark Johnston trained Monterosso both won class 75 handicaps on their last runs. Although Green Moon's win was impressive it doesn't make him a good thing for a class 218 against tomorrow's opposition so just a question of watching.
Jack O'Lantern runs in a class 29 maiden at Ripon on Sunday, the 4.40. He has had two runs in 2010: 4th, beaten 5.3l in a class 26 and then 4th again, beaten nearly 10l, when raised in class to a 56. Both races were over 7f, and on Sunday he is upped 2f but dropped in class to 29. Everything else in the field has had at least one run and none has shown any really worthwhile form, so I think it very likely that Jack O'Lantern will win, though being beaten so far last time out without any obvious mitigating factor gives rise to sufficient doubt to prevent a confident bet. I expect he will be a short price, but if I'm wrong about that and the prices permit I will probably have a small win bet and cover the stake with a place bet as I'll be very surprised if he doesn't make the first three.
