The race that interests me most today is the 4.30 Newmarket.
The front end of the Post's forecast for this class 52 5f handicap is 3/1 Cheveton, 6/1 Boogie Waltzer, 8/1 Bougainvilia, Equuleus Pictor, Sir Geoffrey, Tagula Night.
Assuming all 13 run, the five lowest last three race placings totals in the field are:
07 Boogie Waltzer, Bougainvilia
13 Angus Newz, Billy Red
14 Tagula Night
15 Highland Warrior
16 Cheveton
The automatic consistent horses for the race are therefore Boogie Waltzer, Bougainvilia, Tagula Night and Cheveton - all with one of the three lowest last three placings totals from the first six in the forecast. None of the other three runners with one of the five lowest last three race totals is among the first six in the forecast and so fall to be considered as potential discretionary consistent horses on the criteria VDW used with the likes of Love from Verona rather than those he used with the likes of Prominent King. None meets the criteria so in my view there are just the four consistent horses in the field.
As there are more than three, VDW would have deployed his probables device to see if one could be eliminated by that rating method, but in this case none is, so four probables.
Taking them in their position in the ability rating ranking, highest first:
Cheveton: ranked 4, clearly a form horse, coming from a class 259 last time out where he came a reasonable 6th.
Tagula Night: ranked 9, also in my view a form horse, coming from a win in class 39 last time out.
Bougainvilia: ranked 11, questionable whether a form horse, but even if accepted as such coming into the race from non-winning runs in class 45, 42 and 39 not exactly exciting.
Boogie Waltzer: ranked 12, certainly a form horse, up in class from a win in class 42 last time out. Eleven runs already this season and not once out of the first three,
The potential class/form horse on the balance of class and form, Cheveton, has no capability issues that cause concern, indeed quite the contrary in that he has ideal distance and going conditions. So in my view Cheveton is undoubtedly the class/form horse.
The final issue is whether Cheveton is a strong enough class/form horse to be worth backing. He meets the basic VDW ability ranking requirement of being in the top four (at a pinch five), and he also meets the "ultra consistent" requirements for Roushayd types. The only concern is that there are, on VDW's ability ratings, three better horses in the field. The ARs of the top four are:
252 - Spanish Bounty
132 - Magic Cat
104 - Angus Newz
084 - Cheveton
The top three are markedly higher rated than Cheveton and have all won better class races than him: the best to date for each being SB 623, AN 250, MC 199 and C 187.
Looking at the three with higher ARs:
Spanish Bounty - owes his rating to his last win, a class 623 over 6f in July 2008. Since then he has run 14 times without a win and with only one first three placing. His wins have all been over 5.5f or more and he hasn't been placed in his two runs over today's 5f. He comes into the race from a class 81, but was beaten 25l at 28/1. Obviously he could win today if returning to form, but there is no sign of it in recent runs.
Magic Cat - like SB owes his rating to his last win, in 2008, but has had only five runs since, the lastest in October 2009 when last of 20, beaten 21l, in a class 259 race in which Cheveton finished 2nd. The same comment applies as per SB.
Angus Newz - like the other two, hasn't won since her last, and best, win in 2008, and in the time since that win she has run in and failed to win 15 class 4 or above handicaps. However, the result of that is that she now runs off 78 compared with the 85 off which she won her last handicap, like today's a class 52, back in 2008. Beaten by 3l in a class 38 three runs ago, by 7.75l in a class 42 in her penultimate run, and by 6.5l last time out in a class 42, she doesn't look poised to win today, but like the other two she is, on the AR measure, a better horse than Cheveton and IF returning to form could win.
In sum, there is no evidence I can see that any of the three better horses in the race today is likely to return to form, though like Cheveton they are all dropping a long way in class from their best winning performances and in the cases of Spanish Bounty and Angus Newz have dropped some way in the Official Ratings since their respective last wins. If he was the best horse in the race on VDW's ability rating measure then with his profile in all other respects and conditions to suit Cheveton would be a racing certainty today (with, then, the only conceivable danger being that the highly consistent Boogie Waltzer showed considerable further improvement). As it is, in my view he is very likely to win but falls short of "racing certainty" status.
