This race works out quite easily in that using the Post's forecast we end up with just three consistent horses, Granston, Norwegian Dancer and Be Invicible, so no need to deploy the probables rating method. All three are, in my view, form horses, so three probables with form.
Granston has the second highest AR in the field. Lto he was put up too far in class but previously won a class 68, compared with today's class 75. Not a bad profile, but as a consequence of his win he runs off 88 today and, as a 9yo with 71 runs to his credit, that means he'll have to win off a mark 2lb higher than he's done before.
Norwegian Dancer comes into the race from a decent 6th in a class 84, but I don't see his form as better than Granston's and he has a much lower AR, albeit the 4th highest in the field.
Be Invincible won a class 45 and was then pushed up to 130 where he came a close 3rd, albeit at 12/1, equal 9th in the market. He is, understandably, well down the main AR ranking and not much better off when the ancillary time-based rating is applied.
On the balance of class and form as per the VDW examples, Granston is the class/form horse but not one I want to back. If Be Invincible runs as well as last time, or improves, I think he'll probably beat Granston but again I don't want to back him.
For me, the most interesting runner is Jack Dawkins, who provokes the "what on earth is going on here?" question.
Quite impossible to back, having been beaten a total of 64l in its three runs this season and always starting at 20/1 or greater, nevertheless he intrigues me.
As a 2yo trained by Henry Cecil, he won a couple of nurseries and then had just three runs as a 3yo, running well twice and beaten quite a way when raised considerably in class. As a 4yo last year he won his second race of the season, a £7,800 handicap over 10.5f, where the average OR of the runners was 87.1. Put up from a mark of 90 to 96, he ran three further times without any success and at the end of the season his mark was down to 92. At that point he moved to Dandy Nicholls.
So come the beginning of the current season Nicholls had in his charge a proven winner - 3 handicap wins in 13 runs - seemingly best on good or firmer over around 10f, and now quite close to his previous winning mark. Only a 5yo, so presumably not physically on the decline, and one would think likely to win further handicaps of appropriate class.
So far, Nicholls has run him in three races of lower class, in terms both of prize money and average OR of runner, than his win last year, over 8f which, from his career to date, may prove to be on the short side of what is ideal. In the first two races he was held up and never got into the race, and last time he was ridden from the front, and led to 3f out before weakening quickly. As a result he is now down to a mark of 80, 10lb lower than his last winning mark.
There seem to me to be two likely scenarios here. First, we have what was a promising horse who, for whatever reason, has regressed and won't again win at the kind of class his 2yo to 4yo career would lead one to suppose was his natural one. Second, Nicholls has been finding out about the horse - and at the same time getting its OR down - before readying it to win a handicap off what will prove a low mark.
The comparison between Jack Dawkins' last win and today's race is as follows:
30/05/10: £7,800 race of average OR 87.1 over 10.5f at Doncaster on good/firm going, off 90, won
31/08/10: £7,500 race of average OR 81.4, over 10f at Ripon on good going, off 80.
As far as I can see, there is no money yet for the horse today, and on the back of his three runs so far this season he can't possibly be backed on the basis of public knowledge. But bearing in mind class of race, mark and conditions, this is by far Jack Dawson's best chance of a further win since that on 30 May 2009, IF he still retains the ability he showed over his 2yo to 4yo career. I'll therefore be keeping an eye on him with a view to backing him later in the season, should he show anything like his 2yo to 4yo form today.
