The Portland (2.45) works out easily enough from the main method perspective, with Masamah, Bajan Tryst, Deacon Blues and Quest For Success the consistent horses (all "automatic" with no potential "discretionaries" meeting the requirements in this race), the first three named the probables and Bajan Tryst the class/form horse. But he is a little too far down the ability rating ranking to be of interest and lacks a little in other "winner in the race" characteristics.
Looking beyond the main method for possible winners with what VDW termed "less obvious form", invites initial consideration of the first five in the ability rating ranking: Hogmaneigh, Bay Knight, Masamah, Quest For Success and Johannes. Of these both Masamah and Quest For Success receive priority attention as they are in the first six of the forecast.
Masamah has won a class 203 and run well in a class 316, but was well down the field in a class 623. Today's 498 falls between the 312 and the 623, so may be possible for the horse at this stage in his career, and but for being unproven with today's weight would have been the class/form horse under the main method. Certainly a chance.
Quest For Success is weighted to come close to Masamah on their 1 August meeting, has won a class 312 and didn't do badly in the class 405 Great St Wilfred. Like Masamah, may well be able to win a race of today's class but doesn't quite suggest to me that he is ready to do so.
Neither, therefore, meets both the criteria that Hitchens and Lowdown met last Sunday, and while either could win they don't attract me as betting opportunities.
Of the other three, Johannes looks the least likely. A 7yo with 35 runs, his best win has been in class 187 and it would surprise to see him show enough improvement to take today's 498.
Bay Knight has won at around the class of today's race - a 478 on 18 July off 93. However, he struggled off 97 when pushed up a bit in class, and 2f in distance, on his last run. Maybe today's 5.5f will suit better, and he obviously has a chance but, as with Masamah and Quest For Success, there is not quite enough there in his career to date - at least, that I can spot - to interest me in backing him.
Last but in my view not least, Hogmaneigh. He won the Portland in 2008 off 100 and has run 11 times since without a further success. However, the Portland win was not a one off as he had previously won a race of similar value at Epsom off 99, so is clearly well able to win races of today's class. Of the 11 races since the 2008 Portland, seven have been in UK handicaps and his best placing was a close 4th, and in his last race (and only run so far this season) he was beaten by more than 10l. On the face of it, nothing to suggest he is poised to win today. However ...
If we assume that a mark of 100 is Hogmaneigh's ceiling for winning a handicap, his runs in the 2008 Ayr Gold Cup and during 2009 pose no difficulties. He ran reasonably enough off marks between 102 and 105, before getting down to 100 again in time for the 2009 Ayr Gold Cup, a class 935 race contested by, on average, horses with 4lb higher marks than today's race. He came a very decent 7th, beaten just 2.5l. He then went on to disappoint in a class 259 at York, but missed the break and finished well. Thus nothing in his 2009 runs to suggest he was a horse on the decline.
But equally nothing in his one run in 2010 to suggest he retains his ability and is poised to win. A last time out performance of 12th, beaten 10+l, in a class 316 off 97, albeit on going firmer than really suits Hogmaneigh, is not the kind of performance one looks for when seeking the potential winner of a class 498 next time out. However ...
Three facts seem to me to invite inferences to be drawn:
1) he is entered in the race;
2) the jockey booking;
3) he is entered in the Ayr Gold Cup, where he went tolerably close last year, and may well not get into it off his current mark of 94 (last year's lowest rated runner ran off 96).
From (1) and (3) I draw the inference that connections still believe Hogmaneigh has the ability to win at today's level or above;
from (3) I draw the more speculative inference that today is not a prep. race for the Ayr Gold Cup as unless he wins he won't get into it (but see penultimate paragraph below);
from (2) and (3) I draw the inference that he will be ready to do himself justice today and will go close;
and from his run in last year's Ayr Gold Cup I draw the inference that connections would see a run in this year's Gold Cup, even with the penalty he would pick up if winning today, as offering a feasible opportunity for him to win it, ie a win today would merely mean he'd be in the Ayr Gold Cup off essentially the same mark as last year.
Add that to the facts that, from a VDW perspective, Hogmaneigh is the best horse in the race and he has proved, twice, that he is capable of winning a race of around today's class, and the possibility that he may well have a favourable draw today, and in my view he becomes a live candidate to win.
However, rather than being grounded (as with Hitchens last Sunday) on actual performances, my view that Hogmaneigh probably retains his ability and will do himself justice today is inferential and thus very speculative indeed. (And another plausible interpretation of facts (1) to (3) is that today IS a prep. run, not for the Ayr Gold Cup where only a win would put him in the field, but for the much lower class Ayr Silver Cup, where off his current mark if he showed form today he would have every chance - and as that is a £30,000+ race it is a prize well worth winning.)
Very tentatively, therefore, Hogmaneigh is my "less obvious form" selection in this race, as part of an endeavour to map out more clearly how one finds this type when the class/form found by the main method falls somewhat short of an "80%" bet.
