This race works out easily to the point of identifying the probables - Doctor Parkes, Rasaman, The Bear and Sir Geoffrey - but then things get more tricky.
No difficulty in identifying the first three as form horses, but Sir Geoffrey is problematic. More difficult still is being sure which of the probables with form is the class/form horse. On the one hand Doctor Parkes scores on ability, on the other Rasaman has the better form, and I don't see any capability issues as over-riding. Taking the VDW examples where there is similar conflict I am reasonably confident, though not absolutely certain, that he would have Rasaman as the class/form horse.
Looking at the two potential class/form horses in turn:
Rasaman is fifth rated in the field on ability and although not seemingly ultra- consistent if we exclude races where he was pushed up in class beyond his capabilities his profile looks better, and it is interesting that he has won his last three races at Musselburgh, all of a piece, class, distance and going-wise, with today's. Given that he won the most recent of these only a fortnight ago, "comfortably", off a mark of 85, no shock if he wins today off 91, but he will have to show some improvement. In my view he falls short of having the profile of an "80%" horse, even without considering the question of whether he, rather than Doctor Parkes, is the class/form horse.
Doctor Parkes is second rated in the field on ability and has been running fairly consistently in races of today's class. His form, in my view, is a little inferior to Rasaman's though having been beaten just half a length last time out and up only 1lb in the official ratings he wouldn't need to find much improvement to win. But his profile is well short of that of an "80%" horse.
Three other horses rank higher on ability than Rasaman and two of them are horses from the stables I follow:
Jargelle, trained by Dandy Nicholls, is top rated and although so far not a handicap winner his performances last season, especially in his last race at Epsom which I rate as his best handicap performance to date, suggest he will do so, and his run at Thirsk on 15 May was encouraging. However, since the Thirsk run he has been dropped in class twice and been well beaten on both occasions, the more recent in the race on 22 August won by Rasaman. While I shall continue to follow Jargelle's placings in the hope of spotting when he is both ready and placed to win, I can't see a logical basis for regarding today as that day.
Burnwynd Boy is third ranked on ability and has been running at 6f and above, showing nothing this season. A major surprise should he win today on his first run over 5f.
The Nifty Fox, trained by TD Easterby, is fourth highest ranked on ability and has been fairly consistent over 5f of late, but has been twice beaten by Rasaman in recent months. However, he is now handicapped potentially to reverse those defeats:
18/06/10 - beaten a head, now 11lb better off
22/08/10 - beaten 2.75l, now 6lb better off
He is also closely handicapped with Doctor Parkes. No surprise if The Nifty Fox wins.
In sum, there are at least three horses in the race who would occasion no surprise if they won, with top rated on ability Jargelle a seemingly unlikely but possible joker in the pack. And that is without even considering horses ranked lower than 5th on ability. No question but that this is a race to leave alone, betting-wise.
