The 2.00 Newmarket is a race with several runners of interest to me from various VDW angles. As always, the class/form horse, but in this race even more so two others from the "watch what connections are up to" perspective.
Lucky Dance is running in this race for the third year running, winning in 2008 and finishing 4th in a much classier renewal last year. In both those races he ran off 86, from 4lb out of the handicap. Today he is rated 83 and runs from within the handicap. The class of the opposition is much the same as in 2008 and markedly lower than in 2009, and his performances in 2010 don't suggest to me that he is yet in decline. In short a horse who can reasonably be presumed to be targetted at the race, if anything with an easier task than he faced when winning the 2008 renewal, and a very much easier task than he faced in last year's. With so many potentially progressive three and four year olds in the race, I will be surprised if one or more doesn't beat him, but nevertheless were Lucky Dance to win it would not be a total shock and I've traded him to produce a three figure profit to no loss should he win.
The second runner of particular interest is one of the three year olds, Mark Johnson's Sand Skier, who came a disappointing second when 5/4 favourite last time to the trainer's other runner in that race, Al Farahidi who won at 16/1. No shock if Sand Skier won today and became one of those horses of whom VDW warned us: fails to win at a short price and goes in next time out at much longer odds. As with Lucky Dance, far too speculative to risk money on, but I've traded him for a small profit should he win.
