Monday, 11 October 2010

Extracts from Lee's Gummy posts: capability (aka "the other factors")

(01) "Form is where the answer lies, this has been stated before, and normally only the last 3 runs are required to establish if there is a winner in the race. When there is a winner in the race the conditions that the horse is going to face are normally irrelevant [my italics]. These horses are such that the trainer has already taken care of it's placing." (24/11/04.)

[I think Lee was spot on when downplaying, in most situations, capability issues such as trip, going and course, though "normally" implies there will be situations where they can be important, indeed decisive, as VDW made clear, eg trip (Jim Thorpe/Pegwell Bay, Linamix/Zoman), going (Jim Thorpe/Pegwell Bay), course (Forgive 'N Forget, Wayward Lad).

(02) "the Derby … it is imperative that the horse/trainer has given an indication that the horse will get the mile and a half trip in top class, and this normally means winning at 10f or above, in a good class trial … The ability to get the trip in top class is the most important feature of this race." (08/06/04.)

[In the above post Lee pointed out an exception to his view of the normal situation, ie a situation where a capability issue needs to be specifically addressed. I think it is worth reflecting on the kind of circumstance where this is so as, if I am right, there is a commonality underlying the examples VDW and Lee have given.]