Pursuing this theme but moving to a contemporary race, the 3.50 Musselburgh today is pertinent.
At the time of writing this entry all eight horses are still slated to run, and of these all but Battle Planner fall within the first six and equals of the Post's forecast.
The "automatic" consistent horses are Graceful Descent (last three race placings total 5), Chookie Hamilton (6) and Bollin Felix (12).
There are three other potential "discretionary" consistent horses: Atlantic Tiger (15) and Wicked Daze (17) from among the first six and equals of the betting forecast and Battle Planner (17) from outside. Of these, in my view only the first two meet VDW's requirements for "discretionary" consistent horses, so I have a first subset of five consistent horses.
As there are more than three, the next step is to apply VDW's "probables" method of rating, and that eliminates Chookie Hamilton and Atlantic Tiger, leaving three probables: Wicked Daze, Bollin Felix and Graceful Decent, in decending order of ability rating. It is perhaps worth noting that in this instance the "probables" method of rating cuts out one of the "automatic" consistent horses as well as one of the "discretionary" ones. This is far from uncommon.
Taking each of the probables in turn and assessing whether or not they are "form" horses:
Wicked Daze: his third last run was a decent 2nd in class 130 which would in principle (in practice today's going probably won't suit) put him in with a great chance of winning a class 106, especially as he is off a 1lb lower mark today. But the next two runs were poor, beaten a long way in classes 65 and 52, so he cannot be viewed as a "form" horse;
Bollin Felix: his last three runs have been in successively higher class races, 71, 78 and 162, and each has been a form run so no doubt whatsoever that he is a "form" horse, ie a probable with form;
Graceful Descent: very much the same story as Bollin Felix: her last three runs were in races of successively higher class: 32, 39 and 65, and all were form runs. Another probable with form.
The next stage is to assess which of the probables with form is the class/form horse. Taking both class (ability) and form, I think it is clear that Bollin Felix scores on both, and for me he is the clear class/form horse in the race.
The final issue, and most pertinent to this post, is does Bollin Felix have all the "winner in the race" characteristics, ie is he a class/form horse to be backed?
He meets some of the necessary conditions in that he is in the top five of the ability rating ranking (4th) and he meets the ultra-consistency criteria for horses dropping in class. And he has the right conditions today: 16f on softer than good should be ideal. He is a strongish class/form horse.
Possible doubts? Two in my view. First, on VDW's primary measure of ability there are three better horses in the race: Palomar, Wicked Daze and Bowdlers Magic.
Palomar's run from 6lb out of the handicap in the Cesarewitch, coming 5th beaten only 3.5l, makes him a "form" horse and if he could reproduce that run today he'd have every chance. That run looks very out of line with his other Flat performances, and as an 8yo is is difficult to believe he can be improving, so it must be very open to question as to whether he can replicate it. But I can see no firm basis for being confident that he can't;
Wicked Daze, as noted above, is a probable for this race but not a "form" horse. He has won at class 130 off 92, so a 106 off 80 is in principle well within his scope, but none of his best performances have been on going softer than good and, that, combined with not being a "form" horse, makes me think he won't beat Bollin Felix today.
Bowdler's Magic. If we disregard his run at Ascot on 7 August, where in a class 421 he seems to have been outclassed, he is a "form" horse, having run well enough in a class 81 and shown improvement in a class 100. However, in both those races he was beaten some way and even allowing for the 2lb drop in his official rating since that last run he would have to show improvement to win today. As a 3yo that is possible, though he has had a lot of runs this season, and how well he does will probably turn on how he takes to today's trip.
In sum, although I will be surprised if Wicked Daze beats Bollin Felix, one could not be shocked if Palomar did, nor indeed Bowdler's Magic.
My other reservation relates to Bollin Felix's career record. I have details of twenty two runs in class 4 or better handicaps over the last three seasons in my database, and the pattern is quite interesting.
He has won three times, all in races of between class 52 and 56. Indeed he has won 50% of his six handicap runs from 2008 in races below class 60. He has run in 12 handicaps of class 100 and above, up to and including the class 997 Cesarewitch in 2008. The volume of such races, and the fact that he has been in the first three in half of them (at classes 104, 110, 125 (twice), 162 and 324) - and two of the six off a higher mark than his 88 today - suggest that his connections believe he can win such a race and do so not without decent supporting evidence. So today's 106 looks, in principle, "on". But the fact remains that he has yet to win such a race (and all three of the higher ability rated horses have won higher class races than Bollin Felix), and if we look at the six where he came in the first three, there is surely a clue as to why:
13/06/08: class 110, 3rd, beaten 1.8l. On good/firm. Maybe the going.
The other five, all subsequent and on good/soft or soft, are probably more telling:
09/08/08: class 104, 3rd, beaten 5.5l, off 85, carrying 10.00.
12/09/08: class 324, 2nd, beaten 3l, off 89, carrying 9.07
07/11/08: class 125, 3rd, beaten 7.8l, off 90, carrying 10.00 (2008 version of today's)
30/05/09: class 125, 2nd, beaten 0.8l, off 86, carrying 8.11
25/09/10: class 162, 2nd, beaten 1.5l, off 85, carrying 9.01
In the first of the five, as a 4yo he was beaten by another 4yo carrying 15lb less than him and a 3yo who, with the benefit of wfa, carried 20lb less;
in the second, when BF was still a 4yo, the winner was a 3yo who, benefitting from wfa, carried 11lb less;
in the third, still a 4yo, the winner as a 3yo who, with wfa, carried 15lb less than BF, while the second, an older horse, carried 10lb less;
in the fourth, BF now a 5yo, BF was not only carrying much less weight than in the other three but it was an early season race NOT open to 3yos
most recently, off a relatively low weight for him, BF was beaten by a 3yo who, with the benefit of wfa, carried 4lb less.
Today BF carries 10.00 and gives weight to the rest of the field, with two potentially improving 3yos in Atlantic Tiger and Bowlder's Magic, carrying 12lb and 11lb less, respectively.
To summarise, we have in Bollin Felix a class/form horse running on what seem to be his ideal conditions, with several pluses. However, on VDW's primary measure of ability we have three better horses in the race, two of whom are "form" horses and all three of whom have won better races than any Bollin Felix has managed to date. And while his record in races from class 104 to class 324 suggests BF should be able to pick one up of today's class or better, he seems regularly to find one or two horses carrying much less weight, often promising 3yos benefitting from wfa, too good for him in the closing stages. I think Bollin Felix will probably win today, but given the amount of weight he is conceding I think he probably comes into the same category as Canny Danny on the 5 January 1985, a class/form horse also with a lot going for him but judged by VDW to be "unwise to bet" because "weight is a great leveller".
Post race comment
I'm quite pleased with the above analysis, which goes some way to show why VDW is "difficult", if the objective is the 80+% strike rate he claimed.
On my understanding of the basic numerics, Bollin Felix was a strongish class/form horse, and although I thought he'd probably win his record showed his vulnerability at the level of today's class and, as noted above, it was no shock to see him beaten by Palomar and Bowdler's Magic. I think it probable that BF will one day manage to win a race of class 100 above, but personally I'll be looking forward to him dropping down the handicap and then being placed in a class 50 or so, as on 16/07/10.
As for Palomar, he couldn't be backed using the VDW method as I interpret it, but it ought perhaps to be pointed out that he might have been if one followed Lee's take on the initial subset as he exemplified it on the Gummy thread. That involves taking the three most consistent from the first six and equals in the forecast - my three "automatic" horses - and adding any other horses with coming from the three highest class races last time out. Today those three were Palomar (997), Bollin Felix (162) and Bowdler's Magic (100), so an initial subset of five - the "automatics" plus Palomar and Bowdler's Magic (as BF was in both lists). If one then applied the "probables" method of rating to the five, one would have had three probables: Palomar, Bollin Felix and Graceful Descent - all "form" horses, and Palomar as the class/form horse (higher on the ability rating and with better form than BF). All of which goes to show that deriving the class/form horse is a matter of one's understanding of VDW's presumptions.
