The 6.00 Wolverhampton is an interesting race from a VDW perspective.
Using the basic numerical part of VDW's method (and working from the Racing Post's forecast), the consistent horses are Baylini, Tartan Gunna and Thunderstruck, and the first two are well clear of Thunderstruck on VDW's ability rating so are worth first attention.
Baylini has a VDW ability rating of 68, second in the field only to Orchard Supreme. On first look, Baylini is not a form horse, though looking more closely at her last three runs that is open to question. Three runs ago (30 January), Baylini won a class 104 off 89, over what seems to be her best distance (10f). Next time out, in an arguably stronger class 104, Baylini came only 7th off 90, beaten about 4l. But she was baulked when just about to make her challenge and I agree with the ATR commentator that she looked certain to place and it was not out of the question that she might have won. On her next run Baylini was dropped in class to 65, over 12f (a distance she has never won over) and was beaten 1.5l. If one takes the view that she was never expected to win the 12f race, and disregards it, then Baylini could reasonably be viewed as a form horse.
Tartan Gunna has an ability rating of 66, not materially lower than Baylini's, but unlike Baylini has not been active over the AW season and returns to the course today after a five month break. Mark Johnston's blog suggests TG is ready for the race, but that does not mean he is at peak fitness: indeed it would be surprising if he was. Last season, as a 3yo, TG won a class 112 off 88, and followed that up with a close 5th in a class 125 off 91. (I'm less interested in his last race of the season, a 4th in a class 112 at Ascot off 91, as the going was good/soft and the evidence to date is that TG prefers good or firmer.)
TG's 3yo performances suggest that the win in class 112 off 88 doesn't represent his ceiling, and assuming he has progressed over the Winter he should be capable of winning a comparable race off his current 91, and probably much better. On this assumption today's 106 (a relatively weak class 2) should be well within TG's scope, but the unknown is whether he will be fit enough to win first time out. If so, it is likely that he will and, at the end of the forthcoming turf season, he may well seem as though thrown in today. (The similarly named Tartan Gigha won first time out last season on the AW, and went on to win two further handicaps, finishing the season with a very close 2nd in the Cambridgeshire.) Only connections know how TG stands in relation to Tartan Gunna and how fit he is today, but a win would be no surprise.
The 6.00 is not necessarily a two horse race. For example, top on the ability rating Orchard Supreme has won five more valuable handicaps that this during his career, two off much higher marks than today's 86.
In my view things are insufficiently clear cut for a serious bet. If I was sure TG was fully fit, I'd back him with some confidence, and if he was not in the field I'd back Baylini, though she is at her best at Lingfield and if ridden as usual, ie held up, she will need some luck in running. As things stand, I have had a small bet on TG at 5.5 on Betfair which I will lay off, hopefully making a modest profit if he wins. I will also be trading Baylini in the Betfair place market.
