The basic VDW method numerics generate four probables from the field of 14: Thebes, Rebel Duke, Onceaponatime and Where's Reiley. Three are the horses from within the first six of the Post's forecast with the three lowest consistency aggregates, Thebes is a discretionary probable, found in the same way as Prominent King in VDW's first ever race analysis (reprinted as item 8 of "The Golden Years of Van der Wheil", edited by Tony Peach).
Based on their last three runs, all four are in my view form horses and thus probables with form. In terms of ability and class of form:
Thebes: ability rating 84 (ranking within field 3), last run beaten a neck in a class 100.
Rebel Duke: AR 44 (ranking 10th), last run won class 105.
Onceaponatime: AR 37 (ranking 11th), last run a win in class 41, following a close 2nd in a class 69.
Where's Reiley: AR 24 (ranking 14th), last run a win in class 25.
There is an element of conflict here, as Thebes is the best horse of the four (in terms of ability rating) but arguably Rebel Duke has marginally better last time out form than Thebes - a win in class 104 compared to Thebes' close 2nd in class 100. Various of the VDW examples offer guidance in how to resolve these conflict situations and I have no doubt that in this case VDW would have viewed Thebes as the class/form horse (the one most likely to win).
Is Thebes a class/form horse to back?
Ability: 3rd in the ranking and VDW seems to have confined his bets to horses in the first five, so Thebes passes this test. The two higher rated horses are Excusez Moi and Something. Both have won much better races than tomorrow's (EM a class 374 and Something a class 156) and both are running off handicap marks several pounds below their highest winning marks. But neither has had a run since the back end of the last turf season and neither has good form at Southwell, a course horses seem either to be able to run well at or not. Although, being on VDW's view of things, better horses than Thebes either could win if he (a) returned to form and (b) managed the Southwell fibresand, the presence of neither in the field puts me off Thebes.
Ultra consistency: for VDW, a class/form horse worth backing not only needed to be a consistent horse, but also to meet his criteria for ultra-consistency (which can be derived from the examples). Thebes is marginal here, in that his last run just fails the test VDW seems to have used, but only just.
Capability: here there are three potential problems. First, in 36 runs to date Thebes has never run over 5f, the distance of tomorrow's race. His wins have almost all been over 6f. Whether he will be good enough to beat 5f horses such as Rebel Duke over the minimum trip is at the moment unknowable. Second, the fibresand. Thebes has won at Southwell, which is a plus but it was in a class 5 maiden. On his only other Southwell run he came a poor 7th, beaten 10l, in a race of similar class to tomorrow's, off a 1lb lower handicap mark. Given that his other ten AW runs have been on the polytrack, the inference is that connections don't see the fibresand as his preferred surface. Third, the draw. At Southwell over 5f, horses drawn 1-7 win somewhat more than their expected share of races (about 14% more) while horses drawn 8-14 about 22% less: Thebes is drawn 12.
Probability: can Thebes win a race of tomorrow's class off his current handicap mark? The answer to that is probably: on the AW and the turf he has won better races off handicap marks only 1 or 2 pounds lower than his current one.
In sum, we have in Thebes a decent class/form horse who marginally fails one of VDW's apparent tests (ultra consistency), and about whom there are some capability question marks - will he be able to perform to his best over 5f on the fibresand from draw 12? In my view the doubts/question marks mean Thebes falls significantly below the standard needed if one is determined to achieve the 80+% strike rate VDW claimed was possible. Quite a likely winner, but not a bet for me, and I suspect connections are running him in what seem possibly not to be his most favoured conditions because he is due to rise 5lb in the handicap ratings on Friday.
