The three horses from the first six and equals in the Post's forecast with the lowest consistency aggregates are, in ability rating order, Pepe Simo, Aather and Press The Button. There are other horses, both within the first six and equals in the betting forecast and outside it, with low consistency aggregates but they are not, on my view of VDW's method, what he would regard as consistent horses.
As there are only three consistent horses they automatically become the probables.
Pepe Simo: in his last three runs, two wins followed by, last time out, a 5th in much higher class (570), substantially higher in class than the Imperial Cup. PS was beaten a long way, but he was many pounds "wrong" on handicap terms, and following VDW's Ahoy example he can be regarded as a form horse.
Aather: a 3rd in class 52, followed by a win in class 51 and a close 2nd in class 117. Definitely a form horse.
Press The Button: two wins followed by a close 2nd when raised in class: another form horse.
So all three are probables with form.
Of the three, Pepe Simo has the highest ability rating and, on an "Ahoy" view of his last race, the best form, so in my view is the class/form horse.
The question then arises is PS a strong enough class/form horse to back at the level of probability (80+%) VDW took as his threshold. The answer is no. The form is good enough, and there seem to be no negative capability issues. Where he falls somewhat short is in terms of his ability ranking. His AR of 66 means he is only 10th in the field, and although plenty of VDW's class/form horses were lowly ranked within their fields on ability, there is no evidence that he backed a class/form horse lower than 5th ranked. Normally the horses VDW said he backed were in the top four on ability.
The reason for concern is that, on VDW's view of things, there are nine better horses in the field and although none of these is a probable should any of them come back to form they have the ability to beat Pepe Simo on what he has achieved so far. I've had a look at the nine and one in particular - Oldrik - ran well last time out in a much higher class than the Imperial and could be a real danger to Pepe Simo.
In sum, Pepe Simo looks a reasonable proposition tomorrow for an interest bet, but falls short of having all the "winner in the race" characteristics VDW looked for in a serious bet of the kind to be backed if the aim is to achieve an 80+% strike rate.
