In some ways a more interesting race than the more valuable 4.20, which has the complication of half a dozen very lightly raced horses of considerable promise.
Following the basic method procedure, the ability rating ranking for the 3.20, best to worst, is:
Royal Power
Rainbow Mirage
Harrison George
Tartan Gunna
Medici Pearl
Wigwam Willie (equal with Medici Pearl)
Daaweitza
Fastnet Storm
Ezdeyaad (equal with Fastnet Storm)
Marvo
Handsome Falcon
Moheebb
Persian Peril
Kiwi Bay
Jesse James
The first six and equals in the Post's forecast are: 4/1 Kiwi Bay, 7/1 Harrison George, Tartan Gunna, 8/1 Jessie James, 10/1 Fastnet Storm, Handsome Falcon, Rainbow Mirage
From the above seven, the three lowest consistency totals are:
09 Kiwi Bay
10 Fastnet Storm, Jessie James
13 Handsome Falcon
and these are the automatic consistent horses.
There are potentially up to five discretionary consistent horses:
10 Daaweitza
14 Ezdeyaad, Rainbow Mirage
15 Harrison George, Persian Peril
and on my understanding of VDW's rules two of these are indeed discretionary consistent horses, Rainbow Mirage and Harrison George, giving six consistent horses in all.
As there are more than three consistent horses, the device VDW used in the Prominent King evaluation is used to identify the probables, and this eliminates Harrison George and Kiwi Bay.
Of the four probables, Fastnet Storm, Handsome Falcoln and Jessie James are clearly probables with form, but because of his last run Rainbow Mirage is not, leaving three to compare by balancing class, form and capability.
Fastnet Storm is the highest ability rated of the three, came 3rd in a class 112 last time out, has won over course and distance and seems versatile when it comes to going.
Handsome Falcon came 5th in a class 76 last time out and thus is inferior to Fastnet Storm on class and form.
Jessie James came 5th in a class 65 last time out and is in the same position vis-a-vis Fastnet Storm as Handsome Falcon, and in my view Fastnet Storm is the class/form horse.
Is Fastnet Storm a class/form horse with all the "winner in the race" characteristics? There are two issues here:
1) FS's ability rating ranking. He is 7th equal in the field, which on the face of it is too low - VDW seemingly confining his betting mainly to class/form horses in the top four of the rankings with an occasional fifth ranked. But FS is quite unexposed, and for such horses, be they 3yos or early season 4yos, I use VDW's subsidiary, time-based ability rating to cross-check the picture. On that (adjusted for weight carried and distance beaten by) FS comes out well, second equal and with only Moheebb coming out ahead. If this was the only issue, given the excellence of FS's other "winner in the race" numerics, I'd accept him from the ability rating ranking point of view;
2) can FS be assumed to be "off" tomorrow - always an issue for a horse having its seasonal debut. VDW warned his readers to take care early in the season. In hugely valuable races one can reasonably assume the runners are "off". But tomorrow's prize, £6,900, is nothing special for FS who has already won two races of higher worth and we can reasonably assume connections will be aiming for bigger prizes than tomorrow's this season. FS may be perfectly capable of picking up tomorrow's £6,900, dealing with the inevitable rise in the relative weights as a result, and still win one or more better prizes as the season progresses, but that is just conjecture. We know that last season FS ran twice down the field before winning which provides no encouragement for tomorrow. For me the risk that tomorrow is merely part and parcel of the preparation to win a bigger prize is too great for FS to be viewed as 80% certain and thus, despite having an excellent numerical profile, he is not a bet for me.
Looking at the whole field in greater depth than is required for the basic VDW method, almost every runner is dropping in class, some substantially (eg Harrison George from the 779 Lincoln to tomorrow's 69). And quite a few runners have won better races than tomorrow's from a VDW class perspective and/or have better performances from an OR-based perspective. On their career records, there are no horses who can be classed - like Ocean Legend on Saturday - as complete no hopers.
The two closest to being no hopers are in my view Handsome Falcon (despite being a probable with form!) and the forecast favourite, Kiwi Bay. Of these, Kiwi Bay is the more interesting.
KB is a 5yo with 30 runs to his credit, and handicap wins at class 23 (off 75) and class 52 (off 78). In tomorrow's class 69 he runs off 87, and on what he had shown in his first 29 runs, to the end of last year, he would be a complete no hoper whom I would be eager to lay. However, on his only run so far this year KB came out in by far his highest class (from a VDW perspective) race to date - a 312 - and came a very respectable 5th, beaten under 3l, off 87. Because there are so many relatively highly rated horses in tomorrow's race, the apparent gulf in class between KB's last race at 312 and tomorrow's 69 is a lot less than those numbers suggest, but there is no question that tomorrow's is less of an ask, and if KB comes on for his run on 27 March it is not inconceivable that he could win, especially as he goes well on the course. Impossible to be sure whether KB's last run, which was so very much better a performance than anything he had shown previously, demonstrates genuine improvement over the near five months since his previous one, or whether it was something of a fluke, but to lay him could be an expensive way of finding out.
In sum, an interesting race to analyse, with in Fastnet Storm a good looking class/form horse but no way of knowing whether tomorrow's prize is a serious target for him. Numerous other horses dropping in class with previous form that, if replicated tomorrow, would enable them to win, and yet more with not too many runs to their credit who could easily improve enough to win. And we should find out whether Kiwi Bay's run in the Doncaster Spring Mile was a fluke or evidence of real improvement. I see no serious betting opportunities in the race though will try to trade Kiwi Bay to advantage.
