The annual cycle of one of VDW's approaches starts for me tomorrow when Nibani runs in the 4.50 Windsor.
In chapter 6 of "Systematic Betting" VDW suggested noting 2yos which ran well without winning in a race of at least 7f on one of the major courses (Ascot, Doncaster, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown or York). He advised looking for horses who had not been raced more than three times in total and achieved a weight adjusted SF of at least 40 over a qualifying distance at one of the seven courses. The 40 needs adjustment in view of the re-scaling of Split Second SFs, and I take a minimum of 85, after adjusting the present Split Second figures by Ken Hussey's allowances for weight and distance. My list this year has 15 horses and Nibani is the first of them to run.
Nibani only had one run as a 2yo, coming 4th in a class 58 at Newmarket, returning a weight adjusted SF of 92 over 8f. Tomorrow he opens his 3yo career in a modest class 27 over 10f at Windsor, and as he has entries in the Dante, the Derby and the Irish Derby Michael Stoute presumably thinks he is a decent horse.
Were he to prove to be a real Dante or Derby contender, Nibani ought to win tomorrow, but VDW did not back this sort first time out. For example, among his list was Assatis which won first time out but was not backed - VDW advising:
"Never fret because you failed to back a horse when it wins without all the right credentials. Accept this as part of the game because strange things do happen but the really top boys only go in when the green light shows", and
"Each horse on the list must be placed to win and we only watch until such time as this happens".
We have, of course, no way of knowing how fit Nibani will be (the Dante being some way off) or how good the opposition, some having their first ever runs, will prove. So not a bet and, win or lose tomorrow, Nibani will remain on the list and unbacked until, hopefully, he shows us "the green light".
