This class 76 race has some of the same complications as the 3.20 yesterday: numerous horses whose career records suggest they are capable of winning markedly more valuable races using it for their seasonal debuts, with no way of knowing for sure which are really there to win and which are there primarily as part of their preparations for winning more valuable handicaps later in the season.
The first six from the Post's forecast are: 4/1 Medicean Man, 6/1 Fol Hollow, Ishetoo, 8/1 Lenny Bee, 10/1 Indian Trail, Matsunosuke,
all with double figure draws, which are logically and empirically the best draws over 5f at Beverley. (Peter May's draw analyser shows that, without taking any other consideration into account except the draw, a horse drawn in double figures has more than double the chance of winning than a horse drawn in single figures.)
Applying the basic method as illustrated in several previous posts in this blog generates three automatic consistent horses (Fol Hollow, Medicean Man and Lenny Bee) and four possible discretionary ones, none of which in my view meets the requirements to be regarded as a discretionary consistent horse. With only three consistent horses, they become the probables.
An obvious objection to all three is their positions in the ability rating ranking: 10th, 13th and 16th respectively, and I would not be interested in any of the three from their positions arising from the basic VDW analysis. In this race it is likely, as the Post's tissue compiler recognises, that the draw will be the dominant factor.
So if we take the top eight from the draw - the first six in the Post's forecast plus Abraham Lincoln drawn 10 and Tajneed drawn 12 - does consideration of their careers from a VDW perspective enable one to narrow down to one or two with the best chances?
Of the eight, only Lenny Bee and Medicean Man have yet to prove they have they ability to win a class 76 or higher race. But they are 4yos with relatively few runs to their credit and there is certainly no career history to suggest that they aren't capable of winning such a relatively modest prize.
Four of the eight have had a least one run this season: Fol Hollow, Ishetoo, Matsunosuke and Medicean Man, and it is these four in which I am most interested.
Of them, I'd be surprised if Matsunosuke won, as he seems markedly better on the AW. Although he has won a class 81 on turf, that was four years ago off 73. None of his more recent turf runs suggest he is likely to win today off 95.
Of the remaining three:
Fol Hollow came a decent 3rd last time out in a class 106 over 6f on the AW, whereas his record sugggests he is best over 5f on turf, and he won this race last year, although off 87 when today he runs off 95. He had a favourable draw last year, and he won again at Beverley later in the season making it 2/2 at the course. Last year this race was his seasonal debut: the class 106 at Wolverhampton a few days ago looks like a prep. race for a serious attempt to win today, and again he has been lucky with the draw.
Ishetoo ran in the Lincoln, coming a well beaten 10th. It was a strange race for a sprinter to contest, and his 100/1 SP suggests connections did not expect him to be competitive, but the race should have brought him on. The big pluses for Ishetoo today, apart from his draw, are that of my final three he has by some way the best record, having won a class 91 and a class 249 (FH's best being a class 117 and Medicean Man's a class 69), and he is now down below his previous highest winning mark of 93. But a questionmark is whether a horse capable of winning a class 249 less than a year ago is really being targetted at a class 76 today, when winning will inevitably reduce his chances of winning a substantially bigger prize over the next few months.
Medicean Man narrowly won a class 69 at Wolverhampton last time out. As a 4yo with only nine starts to date he is likely to show further improvement but will need to do so to win today, and I'll be rather surprised should he beat both FH and I.
In sum, I suspect that the draw rather than the usual VDW foci of consistency, ability and form as operationalised in the basic method is likely to be the main factor today. Of the best drawn horses with a run this season, study of their careers from a VDW perspective leads me to the conclusion that Fol Hollow and Ishetoo are the most likely, with FH ahead of Ishetoo not because he is the better horse (which I don't think he is) but because it looks as though he is being targeted at the race and it may be that connections have a different priority for Ishetoo.
All far too speculative for serious betting, but I hope to trade both FH and Ishetoo to show a profit should either win.
