I've recently posted the following on the Mathematician's forum. It is not written in explicitly VDW terms as that forum is not concerned with particular methodologies. When I have more time I'll set out the thinking behind Bogside Theatre and my selection of Fathom Five earlier in the week on Maths' forum in VDW terms:
"Bogside Theatre hasn't won on the Flat for nearly three years but looks plausible for the 3.25 Ripon today.
She ran in six handicaps in 2008 including the Northumberland Plate and Cesarewitch and in the first four (including the Plate) came either 2nd or 3rd, never beaten more than 2.5l which is very close over 16f. As a consequence she rose steadily from a mark of 86 to 93, and finished well down the field in her last two handicaps including the Cesarewitch. But in between those last two handicaps she came second in a conditions race, finishing 1.25l behind the Bin Suroor trained 7/4 favourite whom she was meeting on 11lb worse than handicap terms.
As a result of her run in the conditions race, BT started the 2009 season off 95, ran in four handicaps and was never sighted in the closing stages of any of them. As a consequence she started the current season off 75. In her first race at Musselburgh on 4 April she came a very close 3rd, beaten a short head and a neck. Today she runs off 78.
BT also runs on the NH and has run well in several hurdle races this year and, also bearing in mind she has already run on the Flat, she can be assumed to be fully fit.
But what makes BT of particular interest to me is that this is the third consecutive year she has run in this Ripon handicap:
2008 - 2nd, off 86, carrying 9.05, beaten 2l.
2009 - 8th, off 95, carrying 9.11, led to between 2-3 furlongs out before weakening and finishing in her own time
2010 - off 78, carrying 8.06
I suspect that BT's first target this year was the Musselburgh race, but her performances in the early part of 2008 suggest she can be kept in top form for some while and thus I see her as potentially very competitive in today's race."
