The best race today from my point of view is the 3.50 Kempton.
Following the usual procedure, first the field is ranked for ability giving, best to worst,
Bravo Echo
Vitznau
Ceremonial Jade
Dubai's Touch
Thebes
Benandonner
Dunn'o
Capricorn Run
Servoca
Kyllachy Star
Light From Mars
Kay Gee Be
Rileyskeepingfaith
The Scorching Wind
Beauchamp Viceroy
Autumn Blades
The first six in the Post forecast are: 6/1 Bravo Echo, The Scorching Wind, 8/1 Kyllachy Star, Vitznau, 10/1 Kay Gee Be, Rileyskeepingfaith
The three lowest consistency totals from the first six are:
05 Bravo Echo
13 The Scorching Wind
14 Rileyskeepingfaith
which are "automatic" consistent horses.
In addition, there are no less than five horses outside the first six in the forecast which could potentially be discretionary consistent horses: Servoca (05), Light From Mars (09), Theses (13), Benandonner (14) and Autumn Blades (15). None of these in my view meets VDW's criteria for such horses and thus there are just the three, "automatic" consistent horses which become the probables for the race.
Comparing the three probables with the top four on the ability ranking there is one match, Bravo Echo, who is in fact the best horse, from VDW's perspective, in the race. With 2nd in classes 42 and 104, followed by, on his last run, a win in class 312, BE is clearly a form horse.
The other two probables are The Scorching Wind and Rileyskeepingfaith:
The Scorching Wind looks at first glance as if he is not a form horse: beaten a long way last time out in a race of the same class as today's, but he was hampered and lost all chance 4f out, and that run is probably best ignored. On his previous three runs he is a form horse.
Rileyskeepingfaith has had three reasonable runs in Meydan, the most recent a close 3rd in a class 444 and he is also a form horse.
So three probables with form, of whom Bravo Echo is much the highest on the ability rating, has strong form, and with no adverse capability issues is in my opinion the class/form horse.
The next question is whether Bravo Echo is a class/form horse to back at the 80+% probability level. He racks up a lot of pluses, not least being top rated on the ability ranking and he has proven he can win a race of today's class (312) off today's actual weight (9.02). However, he falls slightly short on the "ultra consistency" factor for class rising or same class horses, as will be clear when examined against the benchmark examples of Little Owl, Sunset Cristo, etc. Also, he has quite an ask on my OR-based cross-check, due in part to his rise in the relative weights (5lb) and the fact that from an OR perspective today's class 312 race is a stronger one that the one he won on 20 March. Quite a likely winner, but not 80+% certain.
And both probables offer potentially serious competition:
The Scorching Wind just beat Bravo Echo on 30 January and was heavily backed to do so again when going off 3/1 favourite in the race Bravo Echo won on 20 March. TSW came 9th but was badly hampered 4f out and there is no way of knowing whether he'd have won, or gone close, without that incident. Today the two meet on 4lb worse terms for Bravo Echo than on 30 January and one would imagine that that would be enough for The Scorching Wind to confirm. Further, after the race on 20 March a yob who part owns TSW physically attacked the rider of the horse involved in the hampering incident, which suggests he might have had a very big bet on TSW. Today could well be a recovery mission and I would not be at all surprised to see TSW beat BE. but equally BE may have improved since the 30 January race.
Rileyskeepingfaith is harder to assess. His last three runs have been at Meydan and he ran well: beaten under a 1l in each of his last two races, both class 444. IF we take the class of these Meydan races at face value, on my OR-based cross-check Rileyskeepingfaith is the best in horse in the race by several pounds.
So three probables with form and in my view Bravo Echo, although quite a likely winner, by no means as sure to beat the other two probables despite his big advantage on the ability rating.
And there are other horses with decent chances:
Vitznau won what in my view was a better class 312 race on 13 March than Bravo Echo did on 20 March, and I am not concerned about his undistinguished run in last week's Lincoln which was of course a huge rise in class.
Capricorn Run, Dubai's Touch and Kay Gee Be haven't won races of today's class when viewed from a VDW perspective, but they have each put up performances in stronger races from an OR perspective that would be good enough to win today if repeated. None looks to me to be showing any sign of returning to form, but they might.
But it is Ceremonial Jade that interests me most. On the face of it a complete no hoper, 20/1 and above in the betting and with last three placings 8/12/12, and on his last run beaten over 6l by Rileyskeepingfaith. However, although today's class 312 is from a VDW perspective much better than the last handicap CJ won (a class 125), that race was better than today's when assessed on ORs, and CJ ran off 102 compared with today's 100. In fact, this is the first handicap CJ has contested which is lower than his last handicap win in OR terms in which he has run off less than 102. Assuming CJ retains his ability (and presumably connections didn't send him to Meydan for his last three races just for the sunshine), he is now down to a realistic mark and could win today. He is far too speculative for me to back but at his exchange price it should be easy enough to make a trade or two and show a profit, with no risk, if he does win. My hope, though, is that he simply runs well enough to indicate he has retained his ability and can be backed a little later on when facing perhaps a rather easier challenge.
In sum, Bravo Echo strikes me as a good class/form horse, but certainly not one that is 80+% likely to win, and I would be in no way surprised if The Scorching Wind beat him. The other probable with form, Rileyskeepingfaith, can't be ruled out if the Meydan form stands up and is best in on my cross-check ratings. And Ceremonial Jade is one worth keeping an eye on now he seems to be down to a handicap mark off which he could win.
