Saturday, 3 April 2010

Thoughts on the 3.50 Kempton

Again the result showed how one can't afford to back obvious, and strong, class/form horses who nevertheless fall a touch short of the full VDW "winner in the race" characteristics - IF one is seeking the 80+% strike rate VDW claimed. For every Kaldoun Kingdom that wins there is certainly more than one Bravo Echo who doesn't.

In fact Bravo Echo ran very well today, finishing fourth, beaten less than a length, and on my OR-based cross-check ratings putting in his best ever performance. He will be worth careful thought if placed soon in a slightly less strong race.

Ceremonial Jade was the horse of most interest to me and was one of the six hampered during incidents after a furlong. None of the six came better than 6th (Vitznau), and CJ's 7th, beaten 2.6l, was very acceptable in the circumstances. He now goes on the "watch" list and hopefully will be put into a slightly less strong handicap off his current mark (or maybe a pound or two less if the Handicapper is charitable).