Man of Action won the class 91 handicap yesterday as I suspected he would, but not at a price that for me made him a bet. He is mentioned, though, not as a postscript to yesterday's blog but because he finished behind Youm Jamil in the race last Autumn which qualified YJ for the 2yos to follow as 3yos list. And if Man of Action were running in today's race (2.10 Newmarket) off YJ's mark he would surely be a very short priced favourite.
When the the horses met in the Autumn, YJ had had a run and was noted as "looking well", whereas it was MoA's first ever run and he was noted as "workmanlike, scope", so not too much can be read into the fact that YJ finished second and MoA third. Nevertheless, when one also considers that the 4th in the race, King's Warrior, has recenly finished a decent second in a class 120 in France on his 3yo debut, it suggests that that Newmarket maiden back in October was a decent race. (The easy winner, Quick Wit, has yet to run as a 3yo.)
In principle, therefore, one would not view today's class 65 as beyond Youm Jamil's reach. After his 2nd in the class 52 maiden last October, YJ began his 2yo career with a decent third in a class 49, where he bettered, on the "Hussey" weight adjusted basis we know VDW used, his previous best SF, so there was reason to think he had wintered well and would show improvement as a 3yo.
Having moved up in distance from 7f to 8f for his first 3yo run, YJ was then pushed up in both class and distance and ran in a class 71, 10.5f race at Chester, where he went off favourite but weakened well over a furlong out and finished a well beaten last. He was then dropped in class and distance and I expected him to win on 4 June when he ran in a class 21 over 8f at Bath. However, he came a reasonably well beaten second of five, returning a "Hussey" weight adjusted SF significantly below his best.
Although I have hopes that YJ will be able to improve on his first run of the season, and I won't be shocked if he wins today, in my view he cannot be regarded as having shown the green light for a bet, so I'll just be watching him.
