I have now had a chance to analyse this handicap and Man of Action undoubtedly has an excellent chance. However, on the numbers he is no certainty. If we compare him with Dukes Art:
DA: lto won class 68 handicap, AR 54, best "Hussey" (weight adjusted) time-based rating 111.
MoA: lto won class 52 maiden, AR 52, best time-based "Hussey" (weight adjusted) time-based rating 110.
And if we compare the quality of the form of those last races through the seconds:
DA: Directorship, in its previous race came 2nd in a class 45 at 14/1.
MoA: Highland Knight, in its previous race came 8th in a class 52 at 100/1.
The previous form of neither of the runners up does anything to suggest the form of the races DA and MoA won was anything special. Highland Knight has run since, winning a class 27, but that doesn't add much.
I think Man of Action will win as he has only had two runs in total, seems likely to be progressive, and should show improvement from his last run. By contrast, Dukes Art may be less progressive and was clearly not an "expected" winner last time out. Given the numerics, though, which slightly favour Dukes Art, I don't think I want to take a very short price on Man of Action, who compared with the Post's forecast of 5/2 is currently 2.6 on Betfair. Not a bet for me at the price, though I would back him at 5/2 or better.
