Two of the 2009 2yos run tonight, with two things in common: both ran very disappointingly last time out, being well beaten, and both are now down in trip.
Jack O'Lantern is top weight in the 6.35 class 32 handicap at Doncaster over 8f, having been a well beaten 6th last time over 9f in a class 29. I have not had time fully to analyse the race but with several last time out winners and placed horses from top stables, Jack O'Lantern's current market price of 20/1 is understandable and even at those odds I am not tempted.
Youm Jamil runs in the 9.05 at Bath, a class 21 over 8f, having been last of seven last time out in a class 71 10f race at Chester. If we leave the Chester race to one side on grounds of class and distance, Youm Jamil seems to me to have the best form in the race with, previously, a decent 3rd in a class 49 when quite well fancied in the market with the winner coming from a previous 2nd place in a class 58, while Linnens Star came 3rd in a slightly higher class race but unfancied at 25/1, with the winner coming from a 2nd place in a class 39. I expect Youm Jamil to win tonight and the question is price. In the Post he is forecast at a very attractive 6/4, but on Betfair he is already odds on, prior to commission. The opposition, especially Linnens Star but also Aattash, cannot be completely ruled out, and I'll be looking for 6/4. At around that price Youm Jamil will be a bet for me, but certainly not at anything less than 5/4.
In sum, in principle Youm Jamil is only the third of the 2009 2yos that I expect to win (the other two having both won), but whether in practice I back him depends on price.
