After some days with no runners, today five of my original list of 15 are due to run.
Green Moon, who has won his three races this season without me feeling able to back him on the second and third occasions (no list horse is backed first time out as a 3yo), runs on the King Edward VII at Ascot (3.05). This is a huge step up in class following his last win (class 929 from 218) but that in itself would not be an over-riding concern because it is a similar step up in class for most runners and GM has, by and large, the best form of the class risers.
The fly in the ointment is At First Sight, who was in the Derby as a pacemaker for Jan Vermeer but who kept on well to finish second. For him this is of course a considerable drop in class. AFS went off at 100/1 in the Derby and was clearly not expected to win, but the undeniable fact is that he ran really well. My hunch is that GM will win, but one can't back on hunches and with AFS in the field I'll be leaving GM.
Both Theology and Total Command run in the Queen's Vase at Ascot (5.00), but they both won when expected on 6 May so have been removed from the list having delivered their profits.
Jack O'Lantern runs in the 6.40 Ayr, back in a maiden after coming 7th last time out in a handicap. This will be his fifth run of the season and so far he has not shown sufficient form to set him up as a bet.
The horse of most interest today is Man of Action, who runs on the 8.10 Newmarket. He won first time out nearly three weeks ago (when he could not of course be backed under this method), easily and as favourite. He is now raised in class from 52 to 91 and looks a serious contender. I've not analysed the race yet - as there are too many earlier handicaps to be worked through for ordinary VDW method bets - but hope to do so before the race, and if so I'll post my conclusions.
In sum, no surprise if Green Moon wins but with At First Sight in the field not for me (incidentally, AFS has a broadly similar profile to one of Lee's selections some years ago, Byron, who won on 27 July 2004). I hope to see a better run from Jack O'Lantern but he's shown nothing yet to warrant a bet. Man of Action looks a possible bet in the 8.10 Newmarket, but the race needs proper analysis to see whether he stands up to full scrutiny.
