One of the characteristics of the VDW main method is that the size of field, class etc have very little to do with the complexity of the problems the method throws up. On Saturday, for example, the large field Totesport Handicap was easy from the perspective of applying the method, while the race I've analysed today - the 4.10 Kempton - throws up problem after problem despite having just twelve runners.
Applying the method as demonstrated several times on this blog, and working from the Post's forecast which has the first six as Bohemian Melody, Take Ten, Secret Witness, Sutton Veny, Ghostwing and Secret Millionaire, there are three "automatic" consistent horses: Bohemian Melody, Secret Millionaire and Secret Witness, and two potential "discretionary" consistent horses, Sutton Veny and Take Ten, both of which do indeed qualify as consistent horses.
So with five consistent horses the VDW probables rating method is applied, and as it happens both the "discretionary" consistent horses, added at the last stage, are eliminated. This is a matter of the ratings and eliminating the "discretionary" consistent horses is NOT the general result when sorting out the probables.
The next stage is to see which of the probables are also form horses, and none of the three is straightforward:
Secret Millionaire: won his penultimate race at class 65 then lto came only second when dropped a tad in class. But close inspection of the quality of the two races leads to the conclusion that SM is a form horse;
Bohemian Melody: like Secret Millionaire, there is an issue over his last race, and indeed whether he can be said to be proven with the weight. A marginal case but, on balance, I see him as a form horse;
Secret Witness: like the other two, a question arises over his last race, but as with SM I think he can be regarded as a form horse.
Overall, therefore, all three probables are probables with form, which leads to the trickiest issue of all with the analysis, balancing class, form and the other factors to identify the class/form horse. Looking at class and form, we have:
Secret Millionaire: AR 48, most recent form good 2nd in a class 62;
Bohemian Melody: AR 43, most recent form a reasonable run in a class 92;
Secret Witness: AR 37, most recent form a good second in a class 113.
Based on the VDW examples where there is conflict between class and form, I think the class/form horse is Secret Witness, though a case can be made for Bohemian Melody if one judges his apparent penchant for Kempton would be the decisive factor.
Taking Secret Witness as the class/form horse, he lacks the full "winner in the race" characteristics in three respects: (1) he is far too low in the ability rating ranking, (2) his penultimate run wasn't up to the standard required, (3) he lacks what Lee usefully termed "ultra consistency". If ever a horse deserved to win a race, Secret Witness does, but viewed coldly from the perspective of the VDW main method presumptions he comes up short.
Bohemian Melody is an interesting horse from the perspective of the interpretation of VDW's Roushayd example by the ex-West Ham footballer, the late Pat Power, who both wrote a contribution to the book "The Silver Lining", edited by Tony Peach and posted, as Beppo, on a now defunct VDW forum. Tony Peach once showed he a letter he had received from Pat in which he claimed to have made £500,000 from what he had learnt from the VDW material.
In his forum postings, Pat gave a number of examples selected over Cesarewitch weekend 2005, including the big race winner. It is impossible to be absolutely sure about all his criteria but I am strongly of the view that Bohemian Melody would have been a selection on Pat's approach when it won on 20 July. In its previous race he had come a decent fourth in a good quality class 312 handicap and on 20 July was dropped into a class 62 at Kempton, a course where prior to that race he had one win and two placings from three runs. A case could be made for Bohemian Melody being a Pat Power type selection again today. After his win on 20 July he was raised in class to 92 and came second to a horse (Kakatosi) which was one of the three probables with form for the very much higher class Totesport Handicap on Saturday, so defeat no disgrace. Today he is dropped in class to 63 and, of course, is again at Kempton where his record is now two wins and three placings from five runs. However, like Bohemian Melody, Secret Witness also has the main characteristic if a Pat Power selection: today he is being dropped to class 63 following a good run on Saturday in a class 113.
An interesting race to analyse for a Monday, and maybe a book comprising Secret Witness and Bohemian Melody would prove profitable, but not a race I'm betting in.
ps (2.50pm)
Secret Witness is a non runner, which makes Mac's Power a consistent horse and indeed a probable, but does not in my view effect the overall conclusion. It remains a little uncertain as to which horse is the class/form horse, because of the weight issue around Bohemian Melody, but I see him as probably the c/f rather than Secret Millionaire. But although he obviously has a better chance with SW not in the field, even if I am right and he is the c/f he falls well short of having all the "winner in the race" characteristics. So still not a betting race for me.
