One of the three probables won the race I discussed yesterday and looking more carefully at his form than I did before the off one can see he was no shock, having come a decent second on his penultimate run in much the same class and running yesterday off a 1lb lower mark and on a favoured track. However, even with hindsight I can't see that he could have been backed from a VDW perspective, except maybe as part of a book.
Today I've had a look at the 4.55 Newbury which works out easily enough in terms of identifying the consistent horses/probables, but rather surprisingly I then find myself unable to view any of the three probables - Sohraab, Doric Lady and Caledonia Princess - as a form horse. Something of a case can be made for the first two, but I prefer clearer cut form horse profiles so, unusually, for me no class/form horse emerges via the main VDW method.
Looking at the top five on ability for a horse with less obvious form placed to win, on my ratings any of them could win today if running to their best, especially top on ability Matsunosuke (and on his best AW form he could win with ease). But I can't see evidence that he or any of the others has clearly been placed to win today, so for me another non betting race.
ps
With four withdrawals in the 4.55 some re-working has been required. The effect is to add another consistent horse, Cape Royal, making four. The probables rating method then needs to be applied and this time no horse is eliminated, so four probables. But I don't make Cape Royal a form horse, any more than the other three, so still no class/form horse.
pps
I had a short telephone conversation with the lady whose letter I received last week. She turns out to be a relative (by marriage) of the man I believe is VDW, with much of interest to say. As she was pressed for time today we have agreed that I will telephone her again at 10.00am on Thursday.
